The Great Seahawks Gambit
Initially, I hoped this week's article would discuss the plethora of moves the Seahawks have made over the last two weeks, but since the first week of free agency, the Seahawks have mostly fallen silent despite entering free agency with the third-most cap space of any team in the NFL. However, the Seahawks' overall inactivity in free agency and the few moves they have made paint a vivid picture of general manager John Schneider's plans for the team going forward; this plan could either set the Seahawks up for a lot of success in the future or blow up spectacularly and cost Schneider his job.
Free Agent Signings
Despite entering free agency with abundant money to spend, the Seahawks have mostly refrained from making a big splash. So far, there have only been three significant signings: Sam Darnold, Demarcus Lawrence, and Cooper Kupp. As I have thought about the Seahawks' three biggest signings in the last few weeks, I noticed an interesting similarity: These are relatively risky. Risky free agency signings would be nothing of note for other teams in the league. Still, under John Schneider, the Seahawks have had a reputation for actively avoiding free agents that carry even the slightest bit of risk. The riskiest of the Seahawks' signings this year is, without a doubt, Sam Darnold. They are handing the keys to the kingdom to a player who has only played at an above-average level once, despite being in the league for seven years.
The Seahawks gave Darnold a three-year, $100.5 million deal. While many would argue that the risk of this deal is mitigated due to its structure, with the Seahawks being able to release Darnold without any dead money after one year, I think most of the risk with Darnold comes from what was given up, as the trade of Geno Smith accompanied the signing of Darnold. While Geno has yet to sign an extension with the Las Vegas Raiders, it will likely be more expensive than what the Seahawks gave Darnold. Despite Geno being more costly than Sam and seven years older, Geno would have been a far safer option. Sam Darnold only has one good year of play to his name, while Geno has had three straight years of good play on a team that sometimes seemed like it was trying to make his job as hard as possible. It is essential to acknowledge that the team that surrounded Darnold in Minnesota last season is superior to the team he now finds himself a member of. I love Jaxson Smith-Njigba as much as the next person, but he is no Justin Jefferson, and the Vikings had one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the league last season, while the Seahawks had one of the worst. If Darnold can replicate or improve the previous season's performance, his signing could put the Seahawks in a great position, but there is no denying that the odds are not in the Seahawks's favor.
Offensive Line
While many of the Seahawks' free-agent acquisitions are risky, the most significant risk they are taking is not signing a single guard or center on the offensive line. The Seahawks entered free agency with plenty of money and a clear need to address the interior offensive line, and they have chosen not to sign a single guard or center. It is not as if John Schneider hadn't tried to sign any, as the Seahawks were seemingly in on guard Will Fries but were ultimately unwilling to match the monstrous offer that the Minnesota Vikings put forth. After Fries was off the table, the Seahawks did bring in a few guards, like Teven Jenkins and Dillon Radunz, for visits, but they ultimately let them sign elsewhere. The pool of starting-caliber offensive linemen has mostly dried up, but the Seahawk's immense need for the point remains. While it is easy to see this as yet another instance of John Schneider ignoring the importance of the offensive line, there seems to be a thought process behind this.
The Seahawk's lack of aggression in addressing the offensive line can be attributed to the following names….
All five of these linemen saw significant playing time last season and positive moments where they flashed talent. The Seahawks are ignoring the O-line in free agency because they believe they already have players on the roster who can be developed. Building an offensive line by drafting and developing linemen is not without merit, as two of the best offensive lines last season, the Detroit Lions and Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, were composed of homegrown talent. Schneider has seemingly confirmed that this is the plan in an interview with Seattle Sports, in which he expressed a high level of confidence in the young guys on the team, attributing many of their struggles last season to the pass-heavy nature of last year's offense, saying "When you're throwing the heck out of the ball, it's pretty hard to gain confidence when you're not running off the ball," Schneider said. "And that's what happened with the young group of guys last year, quite frankly. We were throwing the crud out of it, we didn't really establish the running game. You gain confidence when you come off the ball and you can block your guy, instead of being on your heels all the time."
Building an offensive line through the draft is a proven method, but the Seahawks are taking a massive risk by adopting this strategy, chiefly due to their poor track record. As I mentioned in a previous article, under John Schneider, only one offensive lineman drafted by the Seahawks, Justin Britt, has ever gotten a second contract with the team. If the Seahawks want to pull this off, they must defy 15 years of history, making this an incredibly risky decision. This plan requires a lot of faith in the new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, and the new offensive line coach, John Benton, to develop linemen and Schneider's ability to draft them. Still, if they can pull it off, it will give the Seahawks an offensive line that isn't a revolving door for the first time in 20 years.
Why the Risk?
As I mentioned earlier, in the last 15 years under Schneider, the Seahawks have avoided taking risks, which begs why that has suddenly changed. NFL Trade Rumors analyst Logan Ulrich believes that this change in strategy is because John Schneider is starting to feel some internal heat from the higher-ups, as the Seahawks have missed the playoffs for two straight years and haven't won a playoff game since 2019. Writer Corbin Smith also believes this is the reason for Schneider's change in strategy: "I find it hard to believe that Jody Allen and company are going to be sitting back and going 'you know? That's okay.' They want to be back in the postseason." I also believe this is likely the reason for this sudden change in philosophy, as Schneider has realized that his leash might not be as long as he previously thought and that he has to make changes to keep his job.
This season will be a make-or-break moment for the Seahawks. If all of Schneider's gambles pay off, the team could be set up for great success now and in the future. However, with high reward comes high risk, and if the Seahawks fail to meet expectations this season, we could see the end of Schneider's tenure with the team.
Only time will tell.
Go Hawks!
